Une autre analyse scientifique de grande qualité exempte d’idéologie partisane de Michael Roberts. Il nous dresse le portrait exact et précis de la situation économique mondiale et de l’état avancée de la putréfaction du mode de production capitaliste.
These figures show the tremendous expansion of the Chinese economy. But they also show that the US remains the pivotal economy for a global capitalist crisis, particularly as it dominates in financial and technology sectors. In 1998, the emerging economies had a major economic and financial crisis but it did not lead to a global slump. In 2008, the US had a biggest slump in its economic post-war history and it led to a global recession, the Great Recession. In my view, this weighting still applies.
I have discussed the prospects of a new US economic recession in several previous posts. What matters is not the level of interest rates, whether they are too high or too low relative to some ‘equilbrium natural rate of interest’ that US mainstream economists are now arguing about (more on that in a future post), but what is happening to corporate profits and investment. Investment drives employment and incomes and thus economic growth.
I have presented evidence from my research and from others that the profitability of capital and corporate profits generally lead business investment with a lag of 12-18 months, up and down. Currently global corporate profits (a weighted average of US, UK, Germany, Japan and China) have turned negative and US corporate profits are now also falling (on a year on year basis). That suggests that business investment, which has been expanding at about a 5% rate in the US, will start to drop too within a year or so. If that happens, then the US will likely head into recession. But it won’t be China or emerging economies that will be decisive.
The world’s stock markets are spiralling down. The US equity market has fallen 10% in the last month, a figure that is called a ‘correction’ in investor terminology. That’s not yet a crash or ‘bear market’, usually measured as a 20% fall. But it’s going that way.
Stock markets are diving because it seems that the big investors, banks and financial institutions globally, are worried that China is imploding and planning to devalue its currency hugely, thus driving down the rest of emerging economies, many of which are already in recession (Brazil, Russia, South Africa etc) and so will pull down the rest of world, the major advanced economies, into a global slump.
The economists of many investment banks, previously confident of economic recovery and lauding the great emerging market ‘miracle’, are now in a despond of despair. For example, analysts at the UK bank, the Royal Bank of Scotland…
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